🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."